老查理的投資札記

好久沒有真正記錄自己投資的點點滴滴。

但是隨著年紀的增加，需要一個地方慢慢記錄投資的點點滴滴。開了一個版，用來強迫自己用更有系統的方式整理思緒。

Given the the counterparty risk of FIRST REIT (more than 80% rental revenue is from the sponsor, PT Lippo Karawaci), I've cut 2/3 of my holdings and reduced my exposure to FIRST REIT. I am still bullish on FIRST REIT. Given the sponsor's cash position and liquidity issues, it is better to be prudent and keep a peace of mind. 

The sponsor has significant USD-denominated debts, which is negative to the depreciating Indonesian Rubiah against USD. The sponsor also has other businesses that need capex to grow. Not an ideal situation to bet on REIT yields, which is interlinked to the sponsor's credit situations in the current market environment. Luckily, AREIT's price dropped as a result of the private placement, creating an opportunity to add more units. AREIT has a capable team, proven execution capability and a wild number of tenants in the industrial, business centers. 

In the past week, I've added more units in Capitaland Retail China Trust (CRCT) at S$1.44, given the attractive yield at the current price. The REIT is generating 7% yield p.a. CRCT is catergorized as neighborhood malls, attracting traffic from nearby communities. It is less impacted by the business cycle and ecommerce as people need to eat and entertain all the time and is not affected by the external factors such as the China-US trade war. The only negative factor is currency as CRCT receives RMB in China and RMB is on the depreciating trend. However, strong rental revisions offer great comfort. 

The five core SREITs are integral parts of building the passive income for the future.

我覺得成功的投資，應該致力於找到好公司以及以合理或者是低於內在價值的時點買進。

不過，我還是把少許的部分，歸類在交易的範疇。我把長期投資的公司，或是長期觀察的公司，在特定時點買進並且預期有正面的消息出現，通常持有期限是兩三個月。由於對於標的的了解以及交易格的拿捏，成功的機率似乎還可以接受。如果沒有出現預期的狀況，長期持有也不會產生任何影響。

開始注意到龍嚴，是跟我哥在很久以前交換當下自己投資的組合。老哥當時提到這個公司，基本上是賣靈骨塔的公司。我當時只是粗略的看了年報做了一點簡單的分析，在網路上看了一些新聞，覺得這個產業是個有剛性需求的產業，每個人在最後階段一定會需要這樣的服務或產品。不過，我當時不懂如何去分析這樣的產業，直覺當時股價太高（大概在NTD80-90之間），本益比超過15倍。所以列入我的觀察名單。這一觀察，我基本上就忘記它的存在。

從新再注意這間公司，其實是發現凱雷投資中國福壽園，發現在它香港上市。不過也僅止於感興趣，但也只是被動的觀察殯葬產業的發展狀態。直到另一個私募基金投資了東南亞最大的殯葬公司富貴集團，我才漸漸學習到這個產業的特殊性，及如何去分析這樣特殊的公司。福壽園跟龍嚴不同的地方在於，中國基本上不允許生前契約，所以兩個的營運模式有所同有所不同。而富貴集團，卻是跟龍嚴一樣，營收有很大的部分來自生前契約（塔位，墓地，禮儀服務）。所以富貴集團就是龍嚴的東南亞翻版。

I recalled vividly how I really started to look at REITs as a potential new asset class. I had a conversation with one of our interns over his prior internship expereince. He mentioned he spent time compling data and preparing analysis on one speicialized Singapore REIT: Keppel DC REIT, a REIT focused on managing data centres globally. Given the trends of big data and IOT, the demand for data centres is on the rise. As the only specialized REIT focusing on this particular sector, I did do a bit of analysis and decided to invest for the first time in the SREIT. It started my journey of researching the broader market. I did exit the investment for a decent profit but it would be even better if I contiue to hold on to it. Over time, I have get more and more familiar with the asset class and decide to build a cash-flow machine based on investing in SREITs.

A little backround of SREITs. To be classified as REITs and enjoy the benefits of the tax-efficient vehicle, the managers are required to distribute at least 90% of their taxible income to unitholders/ investors. Due to the nature of REITs (subject to different sub-types), the recurring dividends which are more or less reliable based on the lease for the period of 2-10 years or more are a great attribute to build a cashflow machine for retirement. REITs are bond-like equity risk profile with risks associated with business environment, property markets, rise of interest rates, downward rental revisions, creditability of tenants in the event of default or being unable to honor the tenancy agreement, etc. The upside comes from the managers' ability to manage the property well to attract high quality tenants and implement the add-on acquisitions to acquire new properties. REITs in general has a easy-to-understand underlying business with relatively predictable cashflows and distributions per unit ("DPU"). We generally sacrifice roller coaster upside (in a short period of time) to gradually increasing DPUs and/or unit price. We need to put it in mind that when it comes to investment, there are always risks. The SREITs generally have an average of DPU at between 5-7%, relatively higher in comparison to other REITs in Asia. The SGX has tremoundoues disclosures requirements (?) for REITS or SREITs in general have very good disclosure practices, issueing quarterly reports/ presentations in great details and more frequent distributions (either quarterly or semi-annually). Good managers are expected to grow DPUs over time and thus will have positive impacts on unit price.  

開始就對我台股的部位簡短的做個短評 (2018/6)：

雖然我是價值投資的信奉者，基本上是以研究個股為主。不過隨著整體大環境，自從金融危機以後就一直走大多頭。雖然其中有幾年股市有點修正，但是基本上全球股市還是持續向上。每多一年的多頭，本身就越來越提高警覺，風險意識也就越高。過去幾年持有現金的部位大概都是維持在15-20%，這也對於我整體投資組合的表現，有一定負面的影響。今年，我決定採取比較進取的策略，對於在這個台股高水位的情況下，持續買進覺得被低估的個股。如果考量今年的現金股利的部分，現金的水位大概在5%左右。在閱讀了巴菲特在BPL的階段雖然整體市場價格很高時，還是持續持股接近100%的投資部位，因為資金小還是可以找到投資機會，持有現金的水位要看市場個股投資機會，而不是整體市場的價格。台股雖然是維持在萬點以上，很多一些中小型股還是在合理或偏低的價位。與其等待市場崩盤（不知何時），還是找到合適的機會持續買進。不過，我要減少REITS部位建構的速度，以增加我整體可投資現金的部位。(REITS的現金流建構機制雖然還在早期階段，有時間再慢慢討論。）不過自從前兩年慢慢調整投資個股的產業比重，透過增加內需型及壟斷型的個股，減少外在市場可能造成的影響。現階段持股行業前三個是：汽車產業，金融業，消費性產業。